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To estimate the skill of the predictions, large sets of initialized decadal hindcasts are performed, usually covering the period after 1960 with annually starting 10-year simulations. In contrast to the un-initialized simulations (historical simulations in CMIP) the hindcast derive their initial conditions from observations via assimilation experiments using atmospheric and oceanic re-analysis.
Four generations of hindcasts have been generated in MiKlip up to now:
1. baseline0 (= CMIP5)
- GCM: MPI-ESM-LR – Atmosphere: ECHAM6 T63L47;Ocean: MPI-OM 1.5° L4
- Initialization - Ocean: Anomalies of temperature and salinity from an MPI-OM forced by NCEP re-analysis
- Ensemble-size - 10 member every 5-years (1960, 1965,...), 3 members in-between years (1961, 1962,...)
- Starting years: 1960 – 2011 (e.g. simulation period decadal1960 = 01.01.1961 – 31.12.1970) ·
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| Ens. Generation | Model version | Grid | Starting years | Ensemble members | # Simulation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| baseline0 | CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 5 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000) | 10 | 500 |
| CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | CEUR-0625 | 5 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000) | 4 | 200 | |
| baseline1 | CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 5 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000) | 10 | 500 |
| CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-44 | 57 (annual 1960 – 2016) | 10 | 5700 | |
| prototype | CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 5 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000) | 1 | 50 |
| preop | CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 57 (58) (annual 1960 – 2017) | 5 (10) | 2850 (5800) |
| 20C_EUR | CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 100 (annual 1910 – 2009) | 3 | 3000 |
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| Ens. Generation | Model version | Grid | Period | Ensemble members | # Simulation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERA40 | CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 1961 - 2002 | 1 | 42 |
| ERAInterim | CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 1979 - 2010 | 1 | 32 |
| ERA40+ERAInterim | CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 1961 - 2010 | 1 | 49 |
| ERA40+ERAInterim | CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-44 | 1961 - 2010 | 1 | 49 |
| ERA40+ERAInterim | CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 1961 - 2016 | 1 | 56 |
| NCEP 20CR | CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 1900 - 2009 | 3 | 110 |
| ERA20CF | CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 1900 - 2010 | 1 | 111 |
Un-initialized (historical) simulations
| GCM | Model version | Grid | Period | Ensemble members | # Simulation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) | CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 1961 - 2010 | 1 | 49 |
| MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) | CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-44 | 1961 - 2010 | 7 | 49 |
| MPI-ESM-HR (CMIP5) | CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 1900 – 2030 (1961-2030) rcp45 after 2005 | 3 (2) | 131 (70) |
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| Name | Project | Details |
|---|---|---|
Africa | Decadal predictions of the West-African Monsoon and tropical Atlantic cyclogenesis 3 RCMs (CCLM4COSMO-CLM4-8, REMO, WRF) Resolution 0.44° (extended CORDEX Africa 4 Decades, 3 MemberMembers | |
Central America/North-Atlantic (CANA) | MiKlip I MesoTel | 2-way nested coupling of MPI-ESM and CCLMCOSMO-CLM |
| Regionally coupled ocean | MiKlip II C1-WP1 | Interactive coupling of CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0/NEMO for Mediterranean- Nordic, and Baltic-Sea |
Alternative SVAT | MiKlip II C1-WP2 | Decadal hindcasts (preop generation) with CCLM5COSMO-CLM5-0-Weg3D |
Many more experiments have been performed including statistical dynamical downscaling with CCLMCOSMO-CLM.
Contributing Partners
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MiKlip Phase II
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- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology: Christoph Kottmeier, Hendrik Feldmann, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Gerd Schädler, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marcus Breil, Natalie Laube, Julia Mömken, Benjamin Buldmann, Fanni Kelemen
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- Deutscher Wetterdienst: Barbara Früh, Sascha Brand
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- University Frankfurt: Bodo Ahrens, Anika Obermann, Nora Leps, Naveed Akhtar, Cristina Primo Ramos
- University
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- Cologne: Mark Reyers
- University Würzburg: Heiko Paeth, Jingmin LI