MiKlip (German: Mittelfristige Klima-Prognosen) is a German research program with the aim to develop a decadal climate prediction system (Marotzke et al., 2016). MiKlip is organized in 5 modules:
The global prediction system uses the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth-System Model MPI-ESM.
Within Module C the regionalization of the global predictions is performed with COSMO-CLM. During the first phase of MiKlip two additional RCMs (REMO and WRF) were also tested.
To estimate the skill of the predictions, large sets of initialized decadal hindcasts are performed, usually covering the period after 1960 with annually starting 10-year simulations. In contrast to the un-initialized simulations (historical simulations in CMIP) the hindcast derive their initial conditions from observations via assimilation experiments using atmospheric and oceanic re-analysis.
Additionally, experiments have been performed to investigate the climate variability and trend over the whole 20th century for Europe, including re-analysis driven simulations based on NCEP 20CR and ERA20CC, MPI_ESM-LR decadal hindcasts and historical simulations.
For the downscaling for Europe the EURO-CORDEX domain is used:
For Europe, the simulations are performed on a rotated grid with the pole at 162°W longitude and 39.25°N latitude. The domain covers approximately the region from about 22°W to 45°E longitude and 27°N to 72°N latitude. The resolutions applied are 0.44° (EUR-44) and 0.22° (EUR-22) and, for Central Europe, 0.0625° (CEUR-0625).
The recommended COSMO-CLM setup is used for the simulations:
| Ens. Generation | Model version | Grid | Starting years | Ensemble members | # Simulation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| baseline0 | COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 5 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000) | 10 | 500 |
| COSMO-CLM4-8 | CEUR-0625 | 5 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000) | 4 | 200 | |
| baseline1 | COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 5 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000) | 10 | 500 |
| COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-44 | 57 (annual 1960 – 2016) | 10 | 5700 | |
| prototype | COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 5 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000) | 1 | 50 |
| preop | COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 57 (58) (annual 1960 – 2017) | 5 (10) | 2850 (5800) |
| 20C_EUR | COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 100 (annual 1910 – 2009) | 3 | 3000 |
| Ens. Generation | Model version | Grid | Period | Ensemble members | # Simulation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERA40 | COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 1961 - 2002 | 1 | 42 |
| ERAInterim | COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 1979 - 2010 | 1 | 32 |
| ERA40+ERAInterim | COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 1961 - 2010 | 1 | 49 |
| ERA40+ERAInterim | COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-44 | 1961 - 2010 | 1 | 49 |
| ERA40+ERAInterim | COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 1961 - 2016 | 1 | 56 |
| NCEP 20CR | COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 1900 - 2009 | 3 | 110 |
| ERA20CF | COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 1900 - 2010 | 1 | 111 |
| GCM | Model version | Grid | Period | Ensemble members | # Simulation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) | COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-22 | 1961 - 2010 | 1 | 49 |
| MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) | COSMO-CLM4-8 | EUR-44 | 1961 - 2010 | 7 | 49 |
| MPI-ESM-HR (CMIP5) | COSMO-CLM5-0 | EUR-22 | 1900 – 2030 (1961-2030) rcp45 after 2005 | 3 (2) | 131 (70) |
| Name | Project | Details |
|---|---|---|
Africa | Decadal predictions of the West-African Monsoon and tropical Atlantic cyclogenesis 3 RCMs (COSMO-CLM4-8, REMO, WRF) Resolution 0.44° (extended CORDEX Africa 4 Decades, 3 Members | |
Central America/North-Atlantic (CANA) | MiKlip I MesoTel | 2-way nested coupling of MPI-ESM and COSMO-CLM |
| Regionally coupled ocean | MiKlip II C1-WP1 | Interactive coupling of COSMO-CLM5-0/NEMO for Mediterranean- Nordic, and Baltic-Sea |
Alternative SVAT | MiKlip II C1-WP2 | Decadal hindcasts (preop generation) with COSMO-CLM5-0-Weg3D |
Many more experiments have been performed including statistical dynamical downscaling with COSMO-CLM.